Stage-dependent model for Hantavirus infection: The effect of the initial infection-free period
José A. Reinoso and F. Javier de la Rubia
Accepted
We propose a stage-dependent model with constant delay to study the effect of the initial infection-free period on the spread of Hantavirus infection in rodents. We analyze the model under various extreme weather conditions, in the context of the ENSO phenomenon (El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation), and show how these variations determine the evolution of the system significantly. When the scenario corresponds to El Niño, the system presents a demographic explosion and a delayed outbreak of Hantavirus infection, whereas if the scenario is the opposite there is a rapid decline of the population but with a possible persistence period that may imply a considerable risk for public health, a fact that is in agreement with available field data. We use the model to simulate an historical evolution that resembles the processes that occurred in the decade of the 1990s.