Geometric and projection effects in Kramers-Moyal analysis

Kramers-Moyal coefficients provide a simple and easily visualized method with which to analyze nonlinear stochastic time series. One mechanism that can affect the estimation of the coefficients is geometric projection effects. For some biologically inspired examples, these effects are predicted and explored with a nonstochastic projection operator method and compared with direct numerical simulation of the systems’ Langevin equations. General features and characteristics are identified, and the utility of the Kramers-Moyal method is discussed. Projections of a system are in general non-Markovian, but here the Kramers-Moyal method remains useful, and in any case the primary examples considered are found to be close to Markovian.