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Phys. Rev. E 63, 066117 (2001) [8 pages]

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

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Romualdo Pastor-Satorras1 and Alessandro Vespignani2
1Departmento de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Campus Nord, Mòdul B4, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
2The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), P.O. Box 586, 34100 Trieste, Italy

Received 1 February 2001; published 22 May 2001

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

© 2001 The American Physical Society

URL:
http://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevE.63.066117
DOI:
10.1103/PhysRevE.63.066117
PACS:
89.75.-k, 87.23.Ge, 64.60.Ht, 05.70.Ln